North America update - March 6, 2024
Please find our latest weekly update on the Transpacific region below.
Services
MSC - INDUSA : has been reinstated beginning with the MSC YUVIKA V. Schedules are still being revised on our side but there are no indications of upcoming calls to Halifax on the EC, just NYC, Savannah, and Norfolk.
ZIM - ZEX has moved her terminal to ITS, Long Beach. Although her published port rotation remains Los Angeles, ITS shows her expected arrival at a terminal level.
WHL - AA3 will be rebranded as ONE - AP1 and scheduled to start by April.
Congestion & Traffic
On the West Coast, Seattle may experience a spike, reaching 40% during w10 & w11 and is expected to recover by w12. The past week saw only 4 out of 10 expected; with 9 vessels rescheduled for w10 & w11. Vancouver's congestion is predicted to remain stable at 30%, although there is a chance of an uptick beginning on March 8 and extending through the weekend, possibly exacerbated by delays in Centerm terminal. Meanwhile, Oakland has seen a turnover of 22 vessels in w9, the highest since w1, and ended the week with 48% average congestion. Expectations for w10 remain in the 45% - 55% range, with 25 forecasted arrivals. There will be a slight reduction in USOAK arrivals from w11 through w14, averaging 18 vessels per week, due to blanks and omissions. Reduced traffic at the port may facilitate a period of congestion recovery through March.
Congestion for Houston is forecasted to be in the 40-50% range from w10 to w11. The port faced difficulties handling arrivals over the weekend, only managing 2 compared to the usual average of 8 vessels. A total of 25 vessels are expected to arrive this week, including 10 delayed vessels from w9, resulting in an 80% congestion rate on Tuesday and 62% congestion today. Savannah's forecasted spike during w9 closed at 45%, with the port handling 29 out of 31 forecasted arrivals. While crews tend to average 10 arrivals during weekends, this previous weekend saw just 6, leading to a spillover of delayed arrivals into w10. This week brought 36 forecasted vessels and congestion levels remaining around 50%.
Contrary to expectations, New Orleans did not experience the forecasted spike in congestion; the distribution of 13 vessels made it possible to close the week at a 12% average. The port anticipates seven vessels for w10. Charleston on the other hand, did see the forecasted surge in congestion, closing at 33%. This week and next week expect an average of 22 arrivals, with congestion levels dropping to around 10%.
Blanks
Over the past week we’ve seen a drastic change in blanks for both the US West Coast and US East Coast. There are 7 new blanks announced for the WC in our 12 week forward window. The OCEAN - MEA4 still tops the charts with 7 blanks on the WC. The US EC has had a whopping 9 new blanks announced since w9, whilst 1 existing blank on the HL - MGX into Houston on w14 was canceled and replaced by the LONDON EXPRESS. The OCEAN- AWE8 maintains the highest cumulative blanks at a total of 4 on the EC.
Blanks in Canada haven’t seen many changes since last week apart from 2 confirmed blanks for the THEA- PN4. The THEA- EC5 still remains as the most ‘blanked’ service with 6 total. Noting that 2 blanks, w13 & w18 into Halifax have moved to w14 & w17 respectively.
Panama Canal Summary
The congestion levels at the Panama Canal remained consistent at 48% during w9 & w10 so far. Currently, there are 6 vessels waiting, 2 waiting to transit the canal, and 33 vessels steaming towards; at a total of 75% congestion today.
Over the past six weeks (w4-w9), the canal has averaged 53 vessels per week, with a daily average of 7 vessels. Looking ahead to the next 6 weeks through w16, an average of 56 vessels per week is expected, indicating a potential increase in traffic if unexpected adjustments are not made in the short-weeks leading up to transit.
There are currently 7 vessels expected to divert away from PAPAC in our forward window.
Suez Canal summary
There are currently 3 vessels waiting, 3 transiting, 21 steaming towards the Suez Canal, at 50% congestion. Congestion levels are at an average of 73% in w10 so far, the lowest weekly average we’ve seen since w48 of 2023 and a sharp decline that has continued since w8 which closed at 100%.
The past 6 weeks have seen an average of 45 vessels transiting per week. While our forward facing 6 week forecasts show an average of 53 per week, w16 has the highest count at 86 vessels - a number we expect to rapidly decline.
112 vessels are currently forecasted to reroute to the Cape of Good Hope and 473 vessels have completed successful diversions since the beginning of the Red Sea conflict.
Kind regards,
Destine
