North America update - March 13, 2024
Please note that this week's regional report does not include Panama Canal or Suez Canal summaries.
More significantly, we will be putting the weekly report on hold for a temporary period as we redistribute some internal resources. We will resume sharing our report in the second week of April.
There is also a high likelihood that we will limit publications to monthly reports going forward in order to provide more in-depth insights, a greater summation of patterns over a longer duration of time, and perhaps cover additional regions or trades if time permits.
We welcome you to share your experiences and feedback during the course of this period and look forward to constructive insights from our friends and clients, as always.
Services
Maersk has announced terminal changes at Charleston affecting the 2M - NEUR-ECNA loop3. This service will be switching calls from Wando Welch Terminal to North Charleston Terminal. Wando Terminal will undergo repairs which could take a year and our team is evaluating the scope of effect this may have on the other 28 services that currently have the terminal in their rotation.
CMA - AZTECA1 is no longer showing calls to USOAK on their schedules
OCEAN - MEA4 has shared signs that they will be changing route from USLAX -> USOAK -> USTIW to USTIW -> CAVAN/CAPRR and we are working on confirming the new service versions. These changes will likely take place in May but we remain alert.
The MSC - INDUSA is exhibiting calls to Freeport despite official advisories having stated that the rotation would proceed from Valencia to New York as the first port of discharge. Our team continues to evaluate the imminent voyages and may add Freeport if consistency is maintained. Still no signs of calls to Halifax being reinstated just yet.
Congestion
For the most part, the US West Coast gateway ports handled traffic with relative ease in w10. Despite some warning signs that a surge of delayed arrivals from w9 could cause a bunch-up into USSEA, they closed out the week at an average of 14% congestion and are comfortably back down to 0% in w11. There are currently no signs of looming congestion spikes relative to vessel arrivals through w15 for these NA ports. Meanwhile, Oakland continues to show improvement; following a downward trend from 62% congestion in w7 to an average of 24% in w11 thus far. Forecasts suggest that Oakland could achieve less than 20% congestion by w12, marking a significant improvement and the lowest levels since w46 of 2023.
In Vancouver, congestion ended at 29% in w10, which is 3% better than the previous week. An easing of congestion in this case is primarily due to three factors: vessels that are slow steaming across the Pacific in anticipation of delays at Deltaport and Centerm, vessels that may implement port swaps by utilizing Seattle as first port of discharge contrary to proforma, and finally some vessels which are showing signs of extended anchorage stays post berth-departure in Tacoma prior to continuing on to CA. Despite persistent delays and congestion, traffic flow remains strong at the port.
On the East Coast, Houston concluded w10 with a congestion rate of 49%, handling a total of 20 vessels. Forecasts for w11 indicate a drop in congestion to 35%, with the port expected to handle another 20 vessels, including 7 that were delayed from previous weeks. On the other hand, Savannah is expected to maintain a congestion rate of 50% in w11, with an anticipated 32 vessel arrivals. The average number of vessels from w11 to w14 is expected to be around 35, likely keeping congestion in Savannah at or above 45%.
Blanks
The US East Coast has had 2 new blanks announced since the previous week and 2 existing blanks have been canceled by the carriers; one on w12 on the OCEAN-AWE4 and another on w20 into Houston for the THEA-EC6 service. The OCEAN -AWE8 continues to top the chart for our 12 week forward window with 4 blanks followed by the OCEAN-AWE7 and OCEAN-AWE9 with 3 blanks each.
The US West Coast, on the other hand, has seen a rapid increase in blanks since last week. 7 new blanks have been announced since the prior week with both the THEA- PS7 and the ML- TPX showing 2 new additions each. The OCEAN-MEA4 still stands with the highest number of blanks in our forward window with a total of 7. Despite the influx of new blanks, numbers for Vancouver are still well below what we saw the same time last year with 9 total blanks in March and 4 in April vs. 17 in both March and April in 2023.
The Canadian East Coast has seen no new blanks since w10 and THEA- EC5 still maintains the highest anticipated cap loss with 5 blanks total. 3 new blanks were announced for the West Coast with 2 of them on the OCEAN- PNW4. This brings the OCEAN- PNW4 up to the highest total with 4 blanks within the 12 week window.
Kind regards,
Destine
