LINER CARRIERS FIRING ONLY FEW BLANKS, AS TRADE CAPACITY REMAINS TIGHT IN 2021 Q1
Blank sailings at much reduced numbers in 2021
Container-carrying capacity is even up compared to 2020
eeSea launches a free Trade Capacity Index and Blank Sailings Tracker
COPENHAGEN – 6 January, 2021
A year ago, container carriers couldn’t cancel sailings and lower effective container-bearing capacity fast enough, as the post-Christmas slump, Chinese New Year and Covid-19 combined to produce the gloomiest outlook in years, for an industry otherwise used to misery.
What a difference a year makes.
Analysis conducted on data from eeSea’s Blank Sailings Tracker illustrate how only 1.7% and 0.6% of headhaul sailings on the three East/West main trades have been cancelled in February and March 2021 respectively - compared to the 19.9% and 9.4% cancelled in the same months in 2020.
Only very few sailings have so far been cancelled in Q2 2021; whereas in 2020, Q2 cancellations amounted to 14.7% of expected sailings.
Blank sailings were a much-discussed topic in 2020 - initially seen as a way for carriers to manage their capacity during the crisis; but eventually being blamed for the unanticipated increases in freight rates and significant delays across the supply chain.
However, as mentioned on several occasions, the number of sailings only gives a partial overview.
Commenting on the situation, Simon Sundboell, CEO of eeSea, said:
“It’s understandable that cargo owners and their related interests are frustrated by the tight ocean capacity situation these days. The impact on their businesses is huge. But there seems to be an impression that carriers are deliberately holding back capacity to push up freight rates. We don’t see that. In fact, effective trade capacity is up.”
Looking at eeSea’s Trade Capacity Index, which relates closely to the Blank Sailings Tracker, trade capacity is, in fact, up compared to 2020.
On the three main East/West head hauls, January effective capacity (taking into account blanks, but also including weekly deviations in actual vessel capacity on services) is up by 7.6% over 2020 (with almost the same percentage blanked). And February and March are up by a staggering 34% and 17% respectively, partly - but only partly - owing to the lower number of cancellations.
Says Simon Sundboell:
“Just reading the news, we can see that carriers are snapping up any available charter tonnage. There is no idle capacity left, carriers are delaying scrapping - and moves to build new vessels, with a 3-4 year horizon, have even begun slowly.
For us the ambition is to tell that story in unbiased numbers. And to tell it not only at the global level, but at the very granular trade and port-focused level, so cargo owners, ports, service providers and even the carriers themselves can anticipate the deviations from week to week.”
Rounding off:
“As trade capacity and blank sailings are going to continue being topics high on the agenda in 2021, we’ve decided to make a very high level version of our Trade Capacity Index and Blank Sailings Tracker available live on our website, with filters to show trade lanes such as for example Far East - Europe, Transpacific or trades to/from the South American East Coast. It will be updated weekly, and is free for everyone. Of course, should your organization need more detailed insights, we’d love to help you out”, says Simon Sundboell.
To learn more about the eeSea data platform, visit eesea.com/solutions. The mentioned dashboards can be accessed at eesea.com/trade-capacity and eesea.com/blank-sailings.